EUROPE HOUSE SPECIAL REPORT
The new European Constitution: Difficult negotiations this weekend in Bruxelles
The leaders of the 25 current and future members of the European Union are in Brussels this weekend to decide on a new EU constitution following an extended constitutional convention and months of laborious pre-negotiations.
The crucial Brussels summit is designed to agree on a constitution for the European Union that will streamline its decision-making process when it expands to include 10 new members from Central and Eastern Europe next May.
THIS IS WHAT IS BEING NEGOTIATED (source: the Independent.co.uk and Europe House)Britain: Determined to keep national veto for all tax, foreign policy and decisions on the British budget rebate
Germany: Wants EU voting system changed to reflect its size, then Giscard's exact text adopted
France: Backs Germany in wanting more majority voting and stands by most of Giscard's constitutional draft
Spain: Wants to keep a voting system agreed three years ago under which it won disproportionate influence
Portugal : Worried about any threat to guaranteed representation for each member state in the Commission
Italy: Has to be honest broker in the talks since it is EU chairman and has called for settlement close to the draft
Finland: Main concern will be to safeguard neutrality if a new EU defence pact is in the constitution
Sweden: Anxious to preserve traditional neutrality. Opposed to majority voting on foreign policy
Denmark : Wants the text agreed by Giscard's convention. Hostile to majority voting on foreign policy
Austria: Objects to proposed mutual defense guarantee because of its neutrality
Ireland: A strong ally of Britain in wanting to retain the veto on tax. Worried about threat to neutrality
Luxembourg: Does not like majority voting on taxation because of country's banking industry
Belgium: Supports Convention text and as much majority voting as possible, and would back scrapping national veto
Netherlands: Wants euro rule-book tightened.
Greece: Strong supporter of mutual defense clause being enshrined in constitution
Poland: Allied to Spain in blocking change to voting weights. Wants one commissioner per member state
Lithuania: Pressing for each country to retain a commissioner. Supports Poland on voting rights
Latvia: Wants a commissioner and sees no reason to accept the notion that commissioners act apolitically
Estonia: Wants one seat per country in the commission. Supports Britain and Ireland on tax subject to national veto
Hungary: No real problems but would like minority and ethnic rights to be mentioned in final draft
Czech: Republic Vaclav Klaus, the President, opposes the constitution but the government is generally happy
Slovakia: Happy with draft, although believes national parliaments are offered too little power
Slovenia: Strong supporter of Poland. Believes mutual defence guarantee should not threaten Nato
Cyprus: Supports principle of one commissioner per member state, but will probably accept a compromise
Malta: Supports Britain on energy provisions because of its own offshore oil and gas supplies
WHO HOLDS POWER?
Why it's important: Voting is key to who has how much power in the new, enlarged EU. The plan is to move to a "double majority" system that favours countries with bigger populations.
In favour: Germany and France.
Against: Spain and Poland.
Britain's view: Backs Spain and Poland
Likely outcome: A deal may involve an increase in the
population threshold, a delay
in implementation, or another vote in 2008.
Problem factor: 9/10
NATIONAL VETO
Why it's important: Extension of majority voting to stop an EU of 25 countries grinding to a halt.
In favour: France, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg among others.
Against: Britain is the main opponent, backed, on taxation, by Ireland, Estonia and Luxembourg, and over foreign policy by Poland, Sweden and Denmark.
Britain's view: Vehemently opposed.
Likely outcome: A deal after much wrangling.
Problem factor: 7/10
DEFENSE
Why it's important: To boost the EU's clout on the international stage by giving it the ability to undertake peace-keeping and crisis intervention.
In favour: France and Germany backed by Belgium, Luxembourg and several other smaller states.
Against: Ireland, Sweden, Austria and Finland.
Britain's view: Broadly in favor.
Likely outcome: Deal reached last night. There will be a European defense force
THE COMMISSION
Why it's important: Scaling down would speed decisions after enlargement.
In favour: France, Germany and most of the bigger states.
Against: All small and incoming states.
Britain's view: Prepared to cede one of its two commissioners for the sake of efficiency.
Likely outcome:At least one commissioner per country, possibly two for the bigger states with that perk phased out eventually.
Problem factor: 6/10
GOD
Why it's important: Some believe the first constitution should contain a reference to Christianity or at least to God in its preamble.
In favour: Italy, Spain, Poland, and Ireland.
Against: France implacably opposed, fears threat to church-state separation.
Britain's view: Wary about offending minorities, will back France and others.
Likely outcome: Unclear. Possible reference to "Europe's religious and humanist heritage" offset by reference to EU's secular status.
Problem factor: 4/10
Europe House prediction: Final outcome of weekend meeting up in the air
Many fear the two days scheduled for the talks will not be enough. Given the wide differences that exist between member states, proceedings are likely to turn into another marathon round of horse-trading. There are also plenty opportunities for a deadlock.
"Nothing that requires sacrifice is easy, but whatever the outcome of these negotiations, our Europe is moving towards a closer unity among its people, without having to resort to war as it did in the past. That by itself is a major achievement for all of us.
We at Europe House
, who for many years have always strongly supported a strong and independent European Union of Nation States, wish the leaders of Europe gathered together in Bruxelles this weekend the ability to look beyond today towards tomorrow." Rick Morren, chairman Europe House